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Probabilities and Processes

We continue the search for the mathematics most supportive of prediction within geology. We explore mineralizing systems and find giant ore deposits. We search for black swans and dragon kings and find generalized gamma and extreme value distributions. Power-law and log-normal distributions are commonly, but not always, poor fits to the data. We compare gold distribution with alteration mineral abundance and find a predictable link that may be described in nonlinear mathematics. Such work is to be encouraged because we desperately need better science for data distributions where the outliers are the important money makers. We discuss the physical foundations (self-similar fragmentation and competitive growth processes) for grain-size distributions together with the implications for rheological and hydrological behavior. Also included is a discussion of the relation between grain-size distribution, processes and deformation history.

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