Understanding Impact of Campaigns
Have you ever tried to understand the structure of a problem using qualitative models? Using causal loop diagrams, you can quickly create such models that are easy to understand. This example shows a causal loop model for the world dynamics in order to understand how a campaign can reduce the environmental load.
Causal Loop Model of World Dynamics
This simplified model of world dynamics reduces the world system to four main variables indicating the state of the world: population, consumption, environmental load and societal action. Assume that the population will grow exponentially during the next 10 years at a fractional rate of 1% per year. As a potential intervention, consider a public awareness campaign that will start one year into the simulation and last for three years.
Simplified model diagram of world dynamics as proposed by Hartmut Bossel
Simulating the Impact of the Campaign
If there is no campaign, then the elasticity coefficient for the impact of environmental load upon societal action is set at 0.3. However, if there is a campaign the elasticity coefficient will rise to a value of 1—tightly coupling societal action to environmental load.
The left plot shows the results without any campaign and the right plot shows the results with the campaign.